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Uncertainty
Uncertainty
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Taming Uncertainty
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure?Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty.Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do.Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty.They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others.This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change.They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality-that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments.Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
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Embracing Uncertainty
'Susan Jeffers' wisdom feels like a precious gift. Her counsel is profound and meaningful in such challenging times.' MARIANNE WILLIAMSON'Original, courageous and brilliant!' WARREN FARRELL* * * * * * * * * *Nobody knows what will happen in the next moment of our lives.Whatever is in store for us, the only thing we CAN be sure of is that nothing in life is certain. And since we all fear the unknown, life's uncertainty can be a constant source of worry to us. But, as bestselling author Susan Jeffers explains, life doesn't have to be one worry after the next, a steady stream of 'what if's', and a constant attempt to create a secure haven for ourselves.In EMBRACING UNCERTAINTY she emphasises that an unknown future doesn't prevent a rich and abundant life, and shows how by enjoying life's unpredictability we transform ourselves from a position of fear to one filled with excitement and potential. Through invaluable case-studies, exercises and her pragmatic wisdom, Susan convinces us, above all, that life is exhilarating because of, not in spite of the uncertainty.
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Facing Uncertainty
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Age of Uncertainty
MUUY BIIEN's latest offering, "Age Of Uncertainty," is a delightful romp through the murky waters of modern indie rock. From the opening track, the band grabs you by the scruff of your neck and drags you headfirst into their world of swirling guitars and pounding drums. The album exudes a sense of urgency and chaos, as if the band members were trying to cram as many ideas as possible into each song. This frenetic energy is both the album's greatest strength and its biggest weakness. While some tracks, like the relentless "Skeletons" and the haunting "Cyanide Breathmint," benefit from this sense of urgency, others can feel a bit cluttered and overwhelming. Lead vocalist Joshua Evans' gritty, almost manic delivery adds to the album's sense of unease. His lyrics are cryptic and often nonsensical, but they somehow feel perfectly at home amidst the cacophony of sound. "Age Of Uncertainty" is not an album for the faint of heart. It demands your attention and refuses to let go until the final notes of the closing track have faded into silence. MUUY BIIEN may not have all the answers, but they certainly know how to keep you on your toes. In the end, "Age Of Uncertainty" is a wild ride that is sure to leave you both exhausted and exhilarated. So buckle up and enjoy the chaos.
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Investment under Uncertainty
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products?Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries?In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made.In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending.This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information.It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment.The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
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Reasoning about Uncertainty
Formal ways of representing uncertainty and various logics for reasoning about it; updated with new material on weighted probability measures, complexity-theoretic considerations, and other topics. In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it.In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it.While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty.Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research.New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; the application of first-order conditional logic to security.Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.
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Uncertainty in Games
Uncertainty in Games
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